As
the curtains came down Monday on assembly elections in four states and
an Union Territory, exit polls predicted an anti-incumbent mood in all
states except West Bengal. All polls predicted a BJP win in Assam,
raising party hopes of its first government in a north-eastern state
when votes are counted May 19.
The
Congress, which pollsters said was set to be dislodged from Assam after
15 years, seemed to be on its way out in Kerala too with exit polls
predicting the return of the CPM-led Left Democratic Front.
The
Congress can, however, draw solace from its projected victory, in
alliance with the DMK, in Tamil Nadu and Puducherry. Exit polls showed
that the AIADMK is unlikely to break the anti-incumbency jinx in Tamil
Nadu where ruling parties are being regularly voted out since 1991.
Of
the four exit polls released for Assam and West Bengal after polling
ended, the BJP had a clear majority in three and the TMC in all.
In
Assam, the BJP is set to clear the half-way mark of 64, according to
ABP-Nielsen, News X-Chanakya and India Today-Axis with 81 seats, 90
seats and 79-93 seats, respectively. India TV-C Voter predicted a hung
assembly with a range of 53-61 seats for the BJP.
The
BJP made strong inroads in Assam in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections where
it got a majority in terms of leads (69 out of 126 seats), and a
voteshare of 36.9 per cent. Assam is particularly important for the
Congress and BJP because, besides being the only Congress-ruled state
among the four that went to polls, it is also the only one in which the
BJP thinks it can capture power.
For
the BJP, a government in Assam would silence growing scepticism about
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popular appeal and party chief Amit
Shah’s image as a master strategist. If the exit polls are correct, the
party will have to find a replacement for Sports and Youth Affairs
Minister Sarbananda Sonowal who was projected as the chief ministerial
candidate there.
Mamata
Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress (TMC) is the only party beating back the
anti-incumbency wave. It is expected to make an impressive comeback in
West Bengal. The ABP-Nielsen, News X-Chanakya and India TV-C Voter gave
178 seats, 210 seats and a range of 163-171 seats.
According
to the India Today-Axis survey, too, the TMC will get a clear majority
with anything between 233 to 253 seats. The grand alliance of the Left
and Congress are lagging way behind with 110 seats in the ABP-Nielsen
poll, 70 in News X-Chanakya, 112 to 128 seats in India TV-C Voter and 38
to 51 seats, according to India Today-Axis exit polls. The half-way
mark in West Bengal is 147.
Of
all the states, the contest appears to be the closest in Tamil Nadu,
according to the exit polls. India TV-C Voter is the only poll that
expects the AIADMK to return to power with anything between 135 and 143
seats. The DMK, according to this survey, would get between 74 and 82
seats. The remaining two polls, India Today-Axis and News X-Today’s
Chanakya, gave a majority to DMK in the range of 124 to 140 seats and
140 seats, respectively. The half-way mark in this state is 118.
Elections
in Tamil Nadu saw the Election Commission of India deferring polls in
two constituencies on account of attempts to bribe voters. Polling in
Thanjavur and Aravakurichi constituencies will be held on May 23 and
results will be declared on May 25. The amount of illegal cash seized in
the state, purportedly used to influence voters, has crossed Rs 100
crore.
In
Kerala, the India TV poll showed the LDF getting 74 to 82 against UDF’s
54 to 62. The India Today-Axis polls gave 88 to 101 seats to the LDF,
and 38 to 48 to UDF. The half-way mark in Kerala is 71.
Assam
Axis-My India | BJP 79-93, Congress 26-33, AIUDF 6-10 Others 1-4
ABP | BJP 81 Congress 33, AIUDF 10, Others 2
News Nation | BJP 63-67, Congress 47-51, AIUDF 7-11, Others N/A
Today's Chanakya | BJP 90 +/-9, Congress 27 +/-7, AIUDF 9 +/-3, Others 0 +/-2
West Bengal
India TV- C Voter | BJP 2-6, Left + 71-79, TMC 163-171, Others 1-5
Axis-My India | BJP 2-6, TMC 233-253, Left 38-51, Others 2-5
ABP-Anand | BJP 1, TMC 178, Left 110, Others 5
NDTV poll of polls | BJP 3, TMC 196, Left 92, Others 5
Tamil Nadu
News Nation | AIADMK 95-99, DMK 114-118, PWF 12-16, BJP 0-1, others 5-9
Axis-My India | AIADMK 89-101, DMK 124-140, PWF N/A, BJP 0-3, others 4-8
Kerala
Axis-My India | UDF 38-48, LDF 88-101, BJP+ 0-3, Others 1-4
C-voter | UDF 54-62, LDF 74-82, BJP= 0-4, Others 0-4
Times Now | UDF 58, LDF 78, BJP 2, Others 2
No comments:
Post a Comment